Donald Trump has two clear structural advantages going into this year’s election. History shows that incumbent presidents have a distinct edge over their challengers, and the electoral college currently over-represents Republican-leaning states. But beyond these built-in factors the picture is unclear. Certain trends point to a Democrat triumph in November, while others point to a victory for Trump. How the president deals with current challenges will also influence the outcome.
The president’s approval rating suggests that the Democrats will win this autumn. Unlike every other post-war president – including one-termers such as Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush – Trump’s net approval rating has been negative throughout his presidency. This strongly implies that a majority of American voters are beyond his reach.
Of course, you could retort that Trump’s social base has held up remarkably well and he doesn’t need to win the popular vote to be elected, as 2016 showed. But alongside Trump’s negative net approval rating, two developments signal that pivotal swing voters will break for the Democrats this time round.
The first of these is the 2018 midterms. The Democrats retrieved the House of Representatives in these elections largely because of voters from the American suburbs. These voters tend to be cross-pressured – economically Republican, but culturally Democratic. The mid-terms showed that, under Trump’s presidency, these voters are inclined to put their cultural preferences first and swing behind the Democrats.
The second development concerns the Democrats’ presidential candidate. Until recently, it looked as if Bernie Sanders was going to be the party’s contender for the White House. This would have delighted many on the left, but it also would have delighted Trump. The socialist Sanders is too radical for many Americans, especially your typically moderate swing voter. If he had won the candidacy, these individuals would have probably held their noses and backed Trump. However, Joe Biden has now emerged as the Democrat candidate. Biden is hardly an inspiring politician, but he is a moderate and has lots of experience. As such, he is more likely to pick up wavering voters and dislodge the incumbent.
A further factor pointing towards a Democrat victory is the economic cost of covid-19. Throughout his presidency, Trump has made a big noise about the state of the economy, claiming responsibility for record highs in the stock market and record lows in unemployment. The coronavirus crisis has brought this narrative to a screeching halt and America (like much of the world) faces a deep recession. If that wasn’t bad enough for Trump, political science research shows that economic trends become more politically consequential the closer you get to an election. Voters have short memories and if the past is any guide, the current economic collapse could loom large in their minds come November, benefiting the Democrats. So, while Trump could plausibly claim to have overseen a booming economy for most of his presidency, that’s unlikely to matter.
In other ways, however, the covid-19 outbreak may boost Trump’s re-election chances. The damage done to his presidency by the economic fallout of the epidemic may be overcome by the so-called ‘rally effect’ – publics rallying behind their leaders in times of crisis. In the US context, this effect was most starkly demonstrated by president George W. Bush and the September 11th terrorist attacks. Prior to these attacks Bush’s approval rating stood at 51%, after them it surged to 86%. While nowhere near the same scale, there are signs that Americans are rallying behind Trump. Since the start of the coronavirus crisis, his approval rating has gone from 44% to 49%. And according to Gallup, this increase in support has come from Democrat and swing voters.
Moreover, the coronavirus crisis may play into Trump’s hands by counteracting Biden’s strengths in the race for the White House. While the president has a unique capacity to shape the national response to covid-19, the Democrat candidate lacks the institutional heft to make a substantial difference. As a result, Biden’s relevance has ebbed as the crisis has unfolded, a trend that will probably continue for the duration of the present difficulties. Biden has tried to arrest this development by holding ‘shadow’ coronavirus briefings. But not only are these no match for the real thing, they also carry a risk: the American people may see them as a brazen attempt to score political points at a time of national emergency, diminishing Biden’s public profile still further.
Whether Trump wins or loses in November will be shaped by his actions over the coming weeks and months. And here there are two key questions to keep in mind. Firstly, how will voters perceive the president’s handling of the coronavirus crisis come election day? Secondly, will Trump be able to escape blame for the economic cost of the epidemic?
Regarding the first question, the situation is incredibly fluid. Just over a week ago 60% of Americans approved of the president’s response to the coronavirus. The latest snapshot of public opinion, however, shows that only 47% of Americans think that Trump is responding effectively, which probably reflects the fact that the US now has the highest number of confirmed covid-19 cases in the world. If this perception of Trump’s handling of the crisis persists, expect the White House to turn blue in November.
On the second question, the particular nature of the economic collapse may give Trump some room for manoeuvre. The stalling of the economy hasn’t resulted from government mismanagement, but from an exogenous shock that was, perhaps, “unforeseeable”. The president will no doubt emphasise this point to try and minimise voter wrath. In fact, he already seems to be taking steps to frame China as the culprit for America’s woes. This narrative will not only have a degree of plausibility – given that the coronavirus appears to have originated in the Chinese city of Wuhan – but it may also prompt a nationalist upsurge behind Trump. The president is wily and he may yet come out on top.